the most recent mainstreet poll claims the following responses, which should really not pass any intelligent poerson's bullshit detector:

liberals: 23.9
conservative: 50.3
ndp: 18.3

and, yet they claim that ford has a net negative favourability rating.

so, you want people to believe that doug ford is running at 50%, and yet that 75% of people disapprove of him.

they then have the panache to present this as some kind of paradox.

they're probably getting a 30% undecided rate - but they're not publishing it. and, so the numbers are probably more like this:

conservatives: 35.21
undecided: 30.0
liberals: 16.73
ndp: 12.81

and, those undecideds probably hate everybody, but lean centre-left: they may not vote liberal in the end, but they probably won't vote for doug ford.

when the numbers tighten up, everybody will feign shock. it's all bullshit.

and, they should be publishing undecideds - that is a valid response at any stage in the cycle.