today is likely to break a temperature record here, due to the remnants of the atlantic hurricane moving north, which is due to the effects of warm water in the atlantic, rather than warm water in the pacific. americans have been lucky that wind shear is so high because these temperatures in the atlantic should be generating substantive storms that should be caving in the coasts in the southeast. they should not get complacent, as the wind shear is a temporary effect that will lift in time, and the warming atlantic will just get more and more intense. it will just take one vicious year for the new normal to assert itself.

some people will try to tie it to el nino. it's not el nino; it's climate change in the atlantic. the cause of the wind shear is dust blowing into the atlantic from the sahara, which has various short-term and long term causes but is temporary.

i would expect the high sea surface temperatures in the atlantic and their effect on pushing the jet stream over the great lakes up a little bit to continue to be the single biggest reason for above average temperatures in the great lakes and st lawerence regions this winter and in upcoming winters. this is not about ocean currents and is not periodic, like enso is. this is about the ocean trapping increasing amounts of heat, leading to consistently higher sea surface temperatures, and is constant.