turnout (as a percentage of voter registration):
2018: 79%
2022: 69%
2026: 63%
that's straight down.
some news reports might claim turnout was up or even that it was some kind of record. this has to do with total number of votes. you would expect the number of votes to constantly go up because population is constantly increasing. every election should have record turnout, if calculated via total votes, due to constant growth.
but the percentage of the population that votes has been steadily falling since 2016.
evangelicals as a percentage of total votes:
2022: 24%
2024: 23%
2026: 17%
that's pretty hefty.
percentage of evangelicals that voted republican:
2022: 83%
2024: 84%
2026: 82%
there was no swing but there was a hefty abstention.
trump approval rating amongst evangelicals
after 2024 election: 78%
before 2026 election: 58%
so, it's easy enough to see what happened.
other demographics like blacks voted in higher numbers and percentages, but that wasn't what created the results. that is a false narrative. the results were the result of low turnout in key white demographics.
none of the polling projected that, it just suggested that democrats had high enthusiasm.