- the polar vortex is caused by the difference in temperature between the northern and mid latitudes. the energy in the vortex is a result of the difference in temperature at the equator v the temperature at the poles (and the earth's spin).
- the polar vortex gets stronger in the winter because the polar night increases that difference. temperatures in the north plunge. temperatures in the south go down a little, but not nearly as much.
- the polar vortex gets weaker in the spring because the return of the sun decreases that difference. temperatures in the south come up, but not nearly as much.
- it follows that a polar vortex cannot weaken due to an increase in temperature in the south leading to higher temperatures in the north, via an energy transfer (that breaks the principles of thermodynamics).
- the extremely weak polar vortex, which is leading to air that was cooled due to the polar night not getting bottled up in the north this year but instead being fed back into the mid latitude climate systems directly without that intensifying process, is the result of a decreased temperature gradient. that is, the reason there's no polar vortex is because the difference in temperature between the poles and the equator is not large enough to produce one.
- but the el nino is legitimately leading to local effects in the south. this should make it easier for the gradient to climb to the point that a vortex forms, not harder! if the vortex can't form in el nino conditions, it can only be because the temperatures at the pole are increasing faster than the el nino.
- we are in solar maximum, and solar maximum has a bigger effect in the higher parts of the atmosphere (the auroras that are visible in the north lead to sudden increases in temperature in the atmosphere), but that's not enough to account for this.
- the cause of the increased temperatures at the poles is the greenhouse effect.
- in fact, models predicted that a strong greenhouse effect would eventually slow down and shut off the polar vortex. there is no polar vortex on venus.
- the jet stream being observed right now does not require an el nino to form. it might happen in el nino conditions. however, it's also a typical late winter jet stream that happens yearly when the polar vortex weakens due to the return of sunlight.
- it follows that el nino may have had a contribution to the amplitude of the jet stream forcing.
- however, the jet stream pattern being seen right now is not the result of el nino, it's the result of the polar vortex being weakened by the greenhouse effect to the point that it may not legitimately form at all this year, which suggests that climate change feedback cycles are operating many decades ahead of schedule.
the canadian north holds a very large amount of methane. if that starts to be emitted out of anybody's control, that's when we get into spiralling effects.
this is not unpredicted. the models projected it, just not on these time scales. this was seen as something that might have started to happen in 100 years.
the polar vortex could come back next year, but the hard bursts of cold air we've seen at the end of recent winters were signs the engine was sputtering and dying and the polar vortex was ceasing to exist. it could come back. or it could not, and that is a major event to take note of and that the weather people are completely misunderstanding, either intentionally under government direction, or accidentally due to incompetence.