i keep pointing out that all of the analysis on iran is done in a vacuum, as though they're not surrounded by russia, china and india - the three biggest powers outside of nato - and as though there aren't any mutual interests in terms of defense and trade.
he's getting the right point, i think, but he's avoiding the context. the realization that's being come to is that the harder they push iran, the more they're going to integrate with america's competitors. as a "regional power"? well, let's not sell out the saudis so quickly, now. how many billions was the last arms purchase? that's a big shift in alliance, and there's really no indication it's occurring.
see, the thing is that the sanctions are an act of war to begin with. the united states is already at war with iran. it's just a different type of war, aimed at trying to influence the government. it's not just empty barbarism. i think everybody knows this. but, if those sanctions are having an opposite effect of increased military co-operation with russia, and china and india circumventing the petrodollar to buy oil, it's no longer playing into american interests. the aim is to dominate them; if the effect is they're losing them, then they're not working.
when something's not working, you don't keep doing it - you recognize as much and adjust. the west pretends to be so concerned about iran developing a bomb, but the faster and easier way to get a deterrent is to rely on russian and/or chinese protection. if the americans keep it up, the russians could act out of principle. and the chinese simply need the oil.
but, iran wants sovereignty. it might be an exaggeration to suggest it wants to be one of the four biggest powers outside of nato, but it certainly wants to be in control of it's own interests. so, becoming a fief of russia or china is no answer. that gives the americans a bit of bargaining power.
which means that what is developing is the same situation that exists in north korea, where a crafty state is finding ways to play the powers off against each other.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8V9lS4KrchY