i do acknowledge i'm losing a little bit of the sample space by essentially assigning kansas and texas to 0% but the outcome would not be substantively different if i worked it out fully. it's obviously a rough estimate. i'm just trying to get a point across.

the point is that it is very unlikely for many unlikely events to happen at the same time and none of these states are likely to swing. i think north carolina is actually going to be pretty close. this isn't an election where people are fed up and looking for a hard swing, it's one where trump is losing support at the margins, and the democrats are clawing and scratching to win unlikely demographics, like evangelical christians, market conservatives, gun nuts and steel workers that actually benefit from the tariffs. it's a harsh dog fight. it's not a "change election". if the democrats win a seat or two, it's going to be through grueling door knocking and effective get the vote out campaigns (like transportation to polls), not via some kind of mass anti-maga backlash. it's just not there. it's just not real.

the democrats should be happy if they pick up two seats.